Humanity：The Next 50 and 500 Years


	Humanity stands at a crossroads. The path we choose could lead either to the collapse of civilization, with horrendous suffering to follow, or to a new renaissance, where humankind reaches for the stars. The outcome hinges on our decisions and actions—or lack thereof—taken now and in the coming decades. It's a daunting prospect. Yet, ready or not, we are the chosen generation, and there's no escape from the 'fierce urgency of now.' 　　In this book, Lee Wai-choi, Eddy, former Senior Scientific Officer of the Hong Kong Royal Observatory and renowned science writer, begins with a comprehensive yet insightful survey of civilization's evolution since the Agricultural Revolution. He explains how we have arrived at this juncture in history before unveiling key features of the contemporary scene and highlighting the formidable challenges ahead. Using the next 50 and 500 years as reference points, he poses relevant questions and offers bold predictions for humanity under various scenarios. Both pessimists and optimists will find ample food for thought here, perhaps even enough to last a lifetime. 　　Abraham Lincoln once said, 'If we could first know where we are, and whither we are tending, we could then better judge what to do, and how to do it.' This book serves as an indispensable tool to help us understand 'where we are, and whither we are tending.' It will transform the way you look at the world and offer valuable insights on how we should shape our future.


	目錄 Preface Chapter 1 The Ascent of Civilization: Blessings and Curse 1.1 From Nature to Culture: Memetic Evolution 1.2 Agricultural Revolution and the Rise of Civilization 1.3 The Agricultural Trap 1.4 Money Makes the World 1.5 The Great Axial Age and the First Enlightenment Chapter 2 The Road to Modernity: Liberation and Alienation 2.1 Rise of the West and Global Domination 2.2 The Second Enlightenment 2.3 Industrial Revolution and the Rise of Capitalism Chapter 3 Contemporary Scene (1): the Unique Century 3.1 A Pivotal Point in History 3.2 Compound Growth and the Ecological Crisis 3.3 Urge of Capital: the Hard Logic of Economic Growth Chapter 4 Contemporary Scene (2): Return of the New Right 4.1 The Onslaught of Neoliberalism 4.2 Trickle-Up Economics and the Precariat 4.3 The Trap of Managerialism 4.4 The Expanding Circle Chapter 5 Contemporary Scene (3): War, Peace and Democracy 5.1 Geopolitics and the Prospects of War 5.2 Democracy Vs Despotism Chapter 6 Contemporary Scene (4): Technology Runs Amok 6.1 Knowledge Explosion and the Technological Threat 6.2 The Nightmare of 1984 6.3 Life 3.0 and Technological Singularity 6.4 The Technological Trap Chapter 7 Predicting the Future: Lure and Trappings 7.1 Lure of the Crystal Ball 7.2 From Dialectical Historicism to Psychohistory 7.3 Stochastic and Dynamical Forecasts 7.4 Courage and Imagination Chapter 8 2070 – 50 Years into the Future (Part 1) 8.1 History Past and Future 8.2 Knowing What Questions to Ask 8.3 Nature’s Red Card 8.4 The End of Growth Chapter 9 2070 – 50 Years into the Future (Part 2) 9.1 Changes Beyond Numbers 9.2 Will There Be a WWIII? 9.3 Permafrost Timebomb Triggered? 9.4 From Political Democracy to Economic Democracy 9.5 World Government a Reality? 9.6 A New Renaissance and Rebuilding Civilization Chapter 10 2520 – 500 Years into the Future 10.1 How Long is 500 Years? 10.2 Longevity and Immortality 10.3 The Midas Touch? 10.4 Withering of the Nations? 10.5 Humanity’s Interstellar Diaspora 10.6 Humankind Beyond Recognition? 10.7 We Are Not Alone, or Are We? 10.8 The Questions We Don’t Know… Concluding Thoughts: The End of Childhood, or The End?